From Cruising To Megatrends

The Origin of the Cruise Industry Megatrends Study 2024

It’s funny how some projects start with a spark and then take on a life of their own. That’s this Megatrends Study.  What began as a casual curiosity evolved into a fifteen-month deep dive into the Megatrends that are shaping the future of ocean cruising.  Something is changing in the world of vacation cruising and there is value in understanding it and applying it when you consider cruising.  With around 35 million passengers in 2024, $42B+ in revenue and over 1.2 million jobs worldwide it affects many people and many in the future who are increasingly interested in the industry.  

Over twelve months, between 2022 and 2023, we developed a simple model that we used to evaluate current state operations and financial status with passenger bookings, costs, service, and experience levels.  As we watched, we saw many of the challenges and incremental changes to be similar to other market developments I’d been involved in throughout my career that was driven by technology, the increase in convenience, and many other factors. 

At the same time, my wife and I found ourselves with some newfound freedom that would allow us to travel.  After discussion, we decided we would take on cruising and test some of the theories we’d been hearing about related to living at sea cheaper than on land, “Free” cruises through casino programs, longevity, and promotions that made last minute cruising almost ‘free’ based on having a higher status in a cruise line loyalty program.  

We spent the last fifteen months in deep study of several cruise lines and going deep on one to achieve the right loyalty levels.  Along the way we’ve tested the programs and promotions, learned all kinds of things and, as we did, we found ourselves pointed to Five Megatrends that are changing the cruise industry.   We’re leading with the Megatrends and then will be adding other studies and findings later.  Here’s what we did and why we’re excited to begin sharing it.

Setting Sail on a Study

This wasn’t our first time doing an industry study, but the cruise industry is different, a world with its own rhythms, quirks, and standards. So, we decided to take a focused approach and set the study scope on ocean cruise lines—leaving river cruising out of it because, frankly, it’s a whole different beast.

Around August 2023, the project really took shape. We finalized the study’s structure, methodology, and research goals. Over the next twelve months, we boarded twenty different cruises across a mix of budget and luxury lines. We rounded out our experiences across major cruise lines and then we focused ourselves to the cruise line that was the best “fit” for us to explore the deeper programs of loyalty and others.  We did something most people couldn’t or wouldn’t dream of doing:  We lived on a cruise ship and watched vacationers come and go.  We did some vacationing and used the programs and amenities on board to ‘tick off’ our own checklist of service and experience items for the study.  As we did so, we chronicled the give and take of programs, the increases in pay-to-play activity, and more.  We also saw crews close up and familiar, we saw how the passenger to crew rations affect the crew and we blended into the scenery.  We also saw the impact of passengers on crew service and operations which is becoming a greater challenge for cruise lines.

Adding Data to the Mix

We used public data from the cruise lines for financial analysis, understanding branding and message, and specific policies and changes. We also used public reviews for statistical analysis.  We also found highly credible cruise-related content, from industry news to YouTube channels dedicated to cruising.  Channels like Travel Scouts, La Lida Loca, Tips for Travelers, and Cruise Hive helped refine the context of the study, along with a broader sense of the market. 

Identifying the Big Themes

With all this research, certain themes kept coming up. At first, they were just ideas scribbled in our notebooks—“massification,” “service identity,” “share of wallet”—but over time, they began to coalesce into something more significant. We’d always been fascinated by the concept of megatrends, those massive forces that reshape entire industries, and we realized that’s what we were looking at here.

Take “massification,”. In plain terms, it’s about the cruise industry’s shift toward larger, mega ships and budget-friendly offerings. But what does that mean for the industry? For one, it changes the passenger experience. On these mega-ships, you’re not getting the same service model you’d expect on a smaller luxury liner. The focus is on efficiency, and with thousands of passengers on board, there’s a certain “race to the bottom” that may be happening compared to traditional cruising. Massification is happening in virtually every line, but it is expressed differently.  Understanding the trend allows us to look for positive changes while watching for style changes.

In the study, we explore five Megatrends and their implications by itself, and as the five megatrends mix and shape the industry.  We will be publishing a blog that covers the basic megatrends and our YouTube Channel, Toucan Travel Club (https://www.youtube.com/@ToucanTravelClub) for entire playlists of videos on the megatrends and other content related to cruising.

Reflections and Takeaways

So, what did we learn from all of this? More than we expected, honestly.  Many of our reflections are personal and related to the crew, their stories of the pandemic, and their incredible resilience and desire to be where they are, doing what they are doing. 

It was also amazing how all the conversations from the very diverse set of people we met, were consistent when it came to what mattered to them, their observations of the ship, and their experience.  One of our mottos has become: “There is no poor cruise line, only a passenger on a line that doesn’t fit”.   We saw that many times and when it was sync, it is a thing of beauty.

The greatest takeaway, however, is the realization that the cruise industry in a post-pandemic world, is a rapidly changing industry that, I believe, has a predictable path that is familiar to me, having had the opportunity to be a part of those industry changes by building and deploying technology, and one that is generally predictive.  The Megatrends study identifies my view of these trends, and the predictions of how they will affect the industry for the passenger, travel agent, and crew, in the future.  

Looking Ahead

As we share this study, we’re excited to see how these people respond to these trends and our findings.  We’re not perfect and we only have the perspective we can build from our research, interviews, and observations that lead to these insights.  We welcome collaboration across anyone interested in furthering this dialogue.

We will use the Megatrend Study to characterize the industry.  Along with our market drivers (see study and other content), they form a unique perspective that we can use to watch and discuss the industry’s and cruise lines paths.   

For the Cruise Consultant / Travel Agent, we hope these trends and our content on cruise alignment, anatomy of cruise programs, and blogs will help you communicate with your clients to help them understand the industry trends and get more value and experience from cruising.

For the cruise enthusiast and passengers, we hope these trends and our content and channel will give you more knowledge about the industry as you look at maximizing your vacation dollar while getting more value.  

For those interested in the direction of the industry, its trends, and would like an experience-based perspective, we have deeper content that we develop as part of our ongoing study and research that is available to members on the underlying analysis, deeper analysis on our perspective and detailed data on our ongoing Value to Value (V2V) Barometer by cruise line, calibrated to passenger style.

More Information

For The Summary Review of our Megatrend Study: Blog Link
YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/ToucanTravelClub for the Megatrend Playlist